The Crystal Ball 2014 The Super Bust

That escalated quickly, didn't it?

Opening Kickoff

Just when I was starting to feel just the slightest bit of warmth and goodwill toward New England and Tom Brady. Just when I was opening my heart to them, just a tiny bit. Just when they almost had me suckered in, BOOM, once again they revealed their true nature. You almost had me. Almost.

The Way It Was

Seahawks 28 – Packers 22 OT

Wow, just wow. I’m not sure what amazed me more, Seattle’s heroic comeback or Green Bay’s tragic collapse.

Seattle’s offense played a horrific game, until the final 5 minutes of regulation and overtime. Green Bay’s defense played a fantastic game, but ran out of steam at the end. And both occurred thanks to their counterparts in the first quarter.

Seattle was still in the game at the end thanks to their defensive play in the 1^st quarter, and Green Bay’s offensive impotence. The Packers swarming defense went after Seattle, and had them reeling in the first half. They were forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. They set their offense up deep within Seattle territory several times. The Green Bay defense set up their offense to put the game away before halftime.

However, the Packer offense played a tight, conservative game and never truly capitalized on any of those opportunities. They were stifled on the goal line by Seattle’s defense, who despite being placed in unenviable positions time and again, held firm. The result was Seattle faced a 16-0 halftime deficit. Yes, no multiple score deficit is good, but if Green Bay had played a more aggressive game on offense, the score could have been 28 – 0 at the half. As it were, this major difference allowed Seattle’s offense to find itself and pull itself together in time to author a fantastic finish to an epic game.

Patriots 45 – Colts 7

The Patriots were the better team, and Indianapolis was not ready for prime time. It’s as simple as that. But as we always seem to discover, nothing is ever simple with New England. Nothing.

Only In Faux NFL Reality…

The NFL threatened to eject Marshawn Lynch from the NFC Championship game if he stepped onto the field in a pair of gold cleats. Good gravy how would L.C. Greenwood live in today’s NFL. At some point, you have to wonder if the NFL just doesn’t like Lynch.

So Rob Gronkowski’s party bus was denied entry to Gillette Stadium. Considering the Patriots would be nowhere without him, if I were New England I’d let him park that thing anywhere, including on the sidelines. But of bigger issues, he has a party bus? Was that a tip from John Madden?

The enormity of the moment caught up with Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who broke down during a post-game interview. A few chucklehead DJs around here were mocking him, and I kept thinking, well why was it cool when Hines Ward bawled like a baby when the team lost the AFC Championship game, but this is mock worthy?

Chris Evans and Chris Pratt are on opposite sides of the Super Bowl, as Captain America pulls for the Patriots, and Star-Lord roots for the Seahawks. The two have turned their good natured trash talking into an awesome bet. Seahawks win, Evans must visit Seattle Children’s hospital as Captain America. Patriots emerge victorious, Pratt must don the Star-Lord mantle and visit Christopher’s Haven, a Boston organization that helps families of children undergoing cancer treatment. Ok, is it possible to root for a tie?

Well, if you’re going to have your team embroiled in a controversy, you might as well troll it expertly. Well played Rob Gronkowski, well played.

Richard Sherman pointed out Tom Brady started the infamous trash talking between the two during the Pats/Seahawks game in 2012. According to Brady, he doesn’t recall Richard Sherman trash talking him after the game. And there’s another lie.

An incarcerated Cowboys fan is suing the NFL over the controversial call against Dallas in the NFC Divisional game. The lawsuit is seeking $89 Billion in damages. No word if Jim Caldwell is joining the lawsuit over Detroit’s Wildcard game results.

According to this report, Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel was nothing but trouble his rookie season. Raise your hand if you’re surprised by this. Huh, only a few hands raised in Cleveland.

Upon Further Review

So now it’s Deflategate. The Patriots, again, have been caught with their hand in the cookie jar.

The Patriots were caught playing with footballs that were underinflated by 2 PSI, a significant amount that could affect performance and handling of the footballs. The NFL started an investigation and determined the Pats were playing with the illegal footballs in the first half, but have not determined cause and intent.

What seemed on Monday as a laughable little story turned into a full blown scandal by Thursday, with constant reports and updates, and press conferences by Belichick and Brady, who both took to the media in attempts to shift blame and defuse an ever expanding mushroom cloud.

The initial argument from Patriot supporters and many fans was so what? It didn’t affect the outcome of the game, what is the big deal? Well, obviously it’s still cheating, and perpetrated by an organization known for cheating. While this instance may not have affected this game, you can't judge cheating based upon its perceived effectiveness afterward. And there’s questions now arising of how long this behavior has been going on and how much it’s affected previous games. As this study shows, since 2010, the Patriots have had a lower percentage of fumbles in the league by a wide margin. Was this because an underinflated ball is easier to grip? Possibly.

Here’s the thing that bugs me about this situation. Why cheat at all? The Patriots were the superior team, no doubt about it. And any advantage an underinflated ball would have provided was minimal at best. There was no need to cheat, yet they did it anyway. Why?

The arrogance of this organization is immense and runs rampant. They play above the rules and across the line constantly and seemingly dare the NFL to do something, anything about it. This attitude is reflected in the response to this scandal, as the public reaction and outrage seems to be more about the organization and their habitual cheating rather than this specific incident. The vitriol spilled upon the Patriots this week is directly connected to Spygate. The Patriots previous cheating scandal was never forgotten, and with this new scandal, the public and media want the reaping that never happened previously, but many felt should have occurred.

And truthfully, it should happen this time. This team and organization look and smell guilty. Watching Brady’s press conference on Wednesday, he looked nervous, twitchy and in a word, guilty. He looked like a man who was trying to cover up something with charm and humor, but was failing miserably. Belichick was cool and calm Wednesday, but by Saturday that facade had shattered to reveal an angry, aggressive man.

Belichick started off the week by claiming to be shocked by the story, claiming ignorance of the NFL processes, ignorance of the situation, ignorance of football preparations and then throwing his quarterback under the bus. To say that very few people believed such a micromanaging control freak who is involved in every detail of his team would not know what was happening with a very vital component of the game would be an understatement. Realizing this storyline wasn’t working, he turned into a CSI agent, running internal investigations and becoming a physics expert.

Belichick met the media on Saturday in a tense and combative impromptu press conference to discuss the team’s internal investigation. His latest attempt to explain away the situation is to illustrate how air pressure can be affected by weather and temperature. Yes, cold weather can lower pressure, just ask anyone who drives a car in a cold weather area. Lower temperatures can lower the pressure inside of an inflated object, so there is some plausibility to this proposed explanation. However, four questions come to my mind. One, if the pressure dropped in the first half on these balls, how come it didn’t in the second half? Two, why didn’t the pressure drop in the 12^th ball? Three, how come it dropped to the same amount in all balls, rather at differing rates which would better explain a natural phenomenon? And Four, how come the pressure never dropped on the balls brought by the Colts, which were subject to the same conditions?

But debating such an issue is merely playing into Belichick’s hands, and ignoring the forest for the trees. He wants everyone bogged down in the details, because that loses focus on the bigger picture and creates enough reasonable doubt to sell his snake oil. But he knows too, there’s no solution that works for him and the NFL.

After the public relations nightmare and constant questioning of ethics the league has faced since before the season, Roger Goodell knows he needs to address this scandal, and punish it harshly. Cheating on the field questions the integrity and credibility of the game, and threatens the one and only thing Goodell cares about, money. If people begin to question the game and the results, they’ll stop going to games, watching games, and buying products. And anything that threatens revenue is the only true threat to the shield.

However, Robert Kraft is a powerful owner in league circles, and Belichick and Brady are at the top of their positions in the league. How can Goodell punish any of them appropriately? How can he not without further submarining the credibility of the league?

The only way for NFL to get past this without significantly punishing anyone and without further raising the ire of the fans and media is the Patriots must lose the Super Bowl. If they lose, public blood lust is satisfied for the time being, curtains draw on the season and Goodell and his cronies can come up with a plausible "explanation" and suitable "punishment". If the Patriots win, then real problems arise, because everyone up in arms now will assume they won by cheating, either in the game or merely to get there, then the NFL and its integrity are questioned. Plus previous Patriot wins, including in the Super Bowl, could suddenly be openly questioned again. The three previous Patriot Super Bowls were won by 3 points. You think an unfair competitive advantage could have swayed such close games? This would be a worst case PR nightmare, one that Goodell will do everything to avoid.

So here’s what will actually happen. Until after the conclusion of the season, the investigation into Deflategate will be ongoing. The Patriots will lose next week. I don’t believe that’s implausible, as I think Seattle is the superior team anyway. But at least one questionable call will occur against New England that will determine course to make sure they lose. Once New England is defeated, the general public feeling will be karmic satisfaction that cheaters never win.

After the season, once the media push has moved on to other sports and other stories, the NFL will quietly announce the results of their investigation, which will conclude the balls to have been deflated by some low level Patriots employee at the behest of Brady without the knowledge of Belichick. Brady takes the rap since he’s a first time offender, and Belichick doesn’t have to worry about getting busted for cheating twice. Said Patriot employee will be terminated, at least one low level NFL employee will be reprimanded for not properly securing the footballs before the game. Brady and the Patriots organization will be fined and potentially lose a draft pick. And that, will be that. Again, justice will die at the altar of money.

The most curious part of this, is the timing. On Monday, Las Vegas initially screwed up setting the points spread, which led to widespread betting on the initial line. The screw up means that if New England should win the game, Las Vegas would stand to lose millions of dollars. Not long after this, Deflategate explodes from silly story to full blown controversy. Coincidence? You decide. But remember, money holds court over professional football.

A Thousand words or less

(Al Bello, Getty Images)

Will this end up being Belichick’s flashlight in the office moment?

Super Bust

It’s finally here! It’s time for the Super Bust! Yes, It’s been a long season, but the payoff is at hand. As everyone remembers, the Super Bust would pit the two consensus pre-season favorites to play in the Super Bowl, yet failed to get there, against each other. This game fills the void in the week between the championship games and the Super Bowl, and provide the participating teams, fans, support businesses and the NFL at large with untold benefits. It also allows the Pro Bowl to move to its rightful place after the season, and corrects many wrongs committed upon the much maligned all-star competition.

Now, let’s review our preseason picks for entrants into the game.

2014 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – New Orleans Saints

AFC – New England Patriots

Alternates

NFC – Green Bay Packers

AFC – Denver Broncos

Woof, those goofy Patriots have bucked the system yet again. Or did they cheat it? Interesting, as the Patriots are the only team to be exceptions to this rule, twice now. Perhaps there’s something much more nefarious to their cheating than we all previously realized.

Regardless, this is why we have alternates. So ladies and gentlemen, please welcome your 2014 Super Bust combatants, the New Orleans Saints and the Denver Broncos! I have a good feeling who’s going to win. We’ll find out next week!

Coaches Carousel

Denver – The Broncos went out of house and hired one of their own. Former Denver quarterback, assistant coach and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak returned home http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/19/denver-broncos-gary-kubiak-head-coachto take the reins of the franchise where he won two Super Bowls. So much for his insistence about staying in Baltimore and building something special.

Baltimore – The team replaced Kubiak with ousted Bears head coach Marc Trestman. That should be fun.

So Atlanta, it looks like it’s down to you. Who are you waiting for to finish their season next Sunday?

He Said He Said

"The game started off kinda ugly, didn't it? But that last three minutes, plus that overtime, is probably as good as you can get." – Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

Packer fans would respectfully disagree.

"We were the better team today and we played well enough to win and we can’t blame anybody but ourselves." – Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

Yup, that about sums it up.

“I let my team down, I feel like. There was a lot on this game. I just feel like if I was able to do my job, my assignment was to block, Jordy would've caught the ball and the game would've been over." – Packers tight end Brandon Bostick whose error led to the Seahawks recovering the onside kick

Brandon, mistakes happen, we’re all human. Everyone is guilty at some point of getting caught up in the moment. Shake it off, you did your best. The team will need you next season.

"Brandon, just like anything, you get into one of those critical spots, it is important for everybody to do their job. Unfortunately that wasn't the case on that play. And that's the result of it." – Packers head coach Mike McCarthy

Speaking of doing their jobs, coach, um, how do you have 2 1^st and goals inside the 5 and come away with 6 points? How on one possession you had two plays inside the 1 yard line, and zero points. How come you settled for field goals on 4 possessions that in each you had a 4^th down and less than 1 situation? Maybe rather than throw one player under the bus for one play, start looking in the mirror at the cat who called such a conservative game that it cost his team the win.

"I think I've heard it all. Oh, God. It's ridiculous. That's the last of my worries. I don't even respond to stuff like this." – Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on Monday on the burgeoning Deflategate

Funny he started the week with these words, since before it was over he couldn’t stop responding.

"I would never do anything to break the rules." - Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Sure.

"Tom's personal preferences on his footballs are something that he can talk about in much better detail. I have no explanation for what happened. I've told you everything I know." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

Funny, also, how he kept coming up with things he knew as the week progressed.

"To me this isn't about 'Deflategate', this isn't about anything having to do about any particular game last week. And it certainly isn't fodder to get by the first week before the Super Bowl. This is about a culture. Is there a culture of cheating at probably what most people look at as the best franchise in the National Football League?''- Marty Hurney, former GM of the Carolina Panthers

Oooh oooh I know Marty! Yes, there is a culture of cheating! I got the answer correct, didn’t I?

"That's B.S. You know if it's rock hard or has a little give." – former quarterback Bobby Hebert critiquing Brady’s press conference claim of not being able to tell the difference between the 1^st half and 2^nd half footballs

"Tom Brady said he likes the ball at 12.5 PSI, but also said he can't tell the difference," an incredulous Bettis added. "For a quarterback who holds the ball, who makes his living handling the ball, I'm very disappointed." – former running back Jerome Bettis also critiquing Brady’s press conference

I love that former players sat there and dissected Brady’s lies.

"I believe now, 100 percent, that I have personally and we as an organization have absolutely followed every rule to the letter.” – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during an impromptu press conference on Saturday to discuss an internal investigation of Deflategate

I believe now, 100 percent, after witnessing that combative and tense press conference that Belichick came off nothing short of Nixonian.

“Too often competitive violations have gone unpunished because conclusive proof of the violation was lacking. I believe we should reconsider the standard of proof to be applied in such cases, and make it easier for a competitive violation to be established.” – Roger Goodell in 2008

"Ignorance is no excuse." - Goodell after Bountygate, in which he chastised Sean Payton for trying to claim he did not know what was occurring on his team

Your move Roger.

Idiot of the Week

2^nd runner up – Seattle Seahawk fans – I cannot stress this enough: no matter how badly things are going, never, ever, EVER leave a game early, especially a playoff game!

1^st runner up – Packers head coach Mike McCarthy – It’s 4^th and goal from the 1 inch line. How do you not go for it there? Those 4 points were the difference in the game. Fortune favors the bold.

Winner – Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick – Yeesh. Idiots.

On Tap This Week

The Pro Bowl

Who cares? Seriously, even I can no longer feign interest. The NFL has screwed up the Pro Bowl so badly in a desperate attempt to provide the game some sort of gravitas and incite interest that now it’s less an all-star game and more of a ridiculous side show.

Look, the Pro Bowl was never going to be anything more than a glorified exhibition game. It occurred after the season when players were winding down and preparing for an off season of rest and healing. No one wants to get hurt right before vacation, so of course there would never be real hitting or tough impact play. The players just wanted to hang out with each other, play a little sandlot football, and have a Hawaiian vacation with their families.

And that was another beauty of the Pro Bowl, its location. For decades it was held in beautiful Hawaii, where the gorgeous vistas and idyllic weather were just the balm for viewers tuning in for the game or skills competitions. Watching the players pal around and walk through plays in paradise warmed the cold souls of people everywhere slogging through winter. The visions of warmth and greenery were so welcome after months of cold, gray landscapes.

Plus, the game served as a coronation for the Super Bowl champions. The Pro Bowl used to be held the week after the Super Bowl. So Pro Bowl members of both Super Bowl teams were able to attend the festivities, and the winning teammates were then feted properly by the other players in the league, congratulated for being the newly minted champions.

But now we have none of that. The game moves around, now to the host city of the Super Bowl, so there goes your exotic, beautiful location. And it’s no longer a vacation for players, teams and their families. It’s held a week before the Super Bowl, so there goes having members of two teams participating. So even by definition that the game is supposed to feature the league’s best is a lie. Only 30 teams are represented. And instead of the best of both leagues facing off against each other, now its two teams “captained” by former players who pick teams during the week before the game. How does that make the last player picked feel? Here he’s supposed to be one of the best in the game, and he’s picked last?

The Pro Bowl was never meant to be taken seriously. There was and should have always been something goofy and campy about it. But the NFL cannot seem to get out of its own way in an attempt to make everything a serious, money generating competition. Once again, the every need for greed screwed up a formerly great tradition. Good job Goodell, you boogered up another NFL tradition.