The Crystal Ball 2013 Week 3 Thursday Night Special on Friday

The NFL is killing me with this Thursday schedule. If they add games on Wednesday, I quit!

Opening Kickoff

Watching last night’s game, and hearing the commentary, I was struck that playing a football game four days after playing a previous one leads to sloppy play, increased injuries and poor entertainment. You think Goodell notices, or can he even tell the difference between good football and bad football?

The Super Bust

Yes, I know, it’s several weeks overdue. And yes, I know, I promised this not once, but twice and failed to deliver. But put away your pitchforks and torches, it’s finally here. The Crystal Ball’s annual Super Bust Picks!

One of my favorite parts of the season is determining who will play in the still theoretical Super Bust. For the uninitiated to our all-star game, the Super Bust was born out of annoyance and frustration with media outlets attempting to prognosticate Super Bowl participants and glean an NFL champion without a single down of meaningful football played. I’ve maintained it’s a ridiculous exercise in futility, and continue to enjoy pointing out the stupidity of choosing winners without any consequential data.

As longtime readers of The Crystal Ball are aware, The Super Bust would pit the two consensus pre-season favorites to play in the Super Bowl, yet failed to get there, against each other. The creation of this game would fill the void in the week between the championship games and the Super Bowl, and provide the participating teams, fans, support businesses and the NFL at large with untold benefits.

Now when this concept was first introduced, the Pro Bowl was still played at its traditional time during the week after the Super Bowl. Since then, Goodell and the NFL saw fit to move the Pro Bowl between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, filling that football free void. So for the Super Bust to actually work, the Pro Bowl needs to return to its proper time, after the Super Bowl. This would benefit the fans, because they would be able to see players from all 32 teams, not 30 minus the Super Bowl participants. And it would benefit the Super Bowl winning team, as their players could be feted by their colleagues fittingly.

I can guarantee The Super Bust would provide exciting football. The two chosen teams would be so bitter about not playing in the Super Bowl, despite being favorites to appear in the big game at the beginning of the season, and forced to play in a sideshow exhibition game they would take out their frustrations on each other. And with only the off season looming next week, all caution would be thrown to the wind. You want hard hitting slobber knocking football? The Super Bust would fit that bill. The game is that simple, and that genius. Plus, it would be fun to gather all the media talking heads together during the pregame show to discuss the participating teams, knowing these clubs were their choices to play for the Lombardi Trophy. Hello awkward conversation!

I’m sure you’re wondering if this would work. Would the pre-season favorites actually be available for the Super Bust, or would they defy my prediction and actually advance to the Super Bowl. To answer this question, let’s compare the 2007 through 2012 season’s preseason favorites to the teams that actually participated in the Super Bowl.

2012 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – Green Bay Packers

AFC – New England Patriots

2012 Actual Super Bowl Participants (Both teams were 2012 Super Bust Alternates)

NFC – San Francisco 49ers

AFC – Baltimore Ravens

2011 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – Green Bay Packers

AFC – New England Patriots

2011 Actual Super Bowl Participants

NFC – New York Giants

AFC – New England Patriots

2009 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC - New York Giants

AFC – New England Patriots

2009 Actual Super Bowl Participants

NFC – New Orleans Saints

AFC – Indianapolis Colts

2008 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – Dallas Cowboys

AFC – New England Patriots

2008 Actual Super Bowl Participants

NFC – Arizona Cardinals

AFC – Pittsburgh Steelers

2007 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – New Orleans Saints

AFC – New England Patriots

2007 Actual Super Bowl Participants

NFC – New York Giants

AFC – New England Patriots

A few items of note here. One, I did not do this prediction in 2010, my bad. Like most sports writers, I too get lazy, or burnt out, or just too busy with this pesky real job thing. Regardless, we do not have data for that year. Moving on.

Of all the picks, the 2007 and 2011 Patriots were the only pre-season favorites to actually advance to the Super Bowl. While being able to make it to the Super Bowl after a full season being a prohibitive favorite is a tremendous achievement, New England lost both games, including their chance at immortality and a 19-0 record in 2007, to the eventual champion New York Giants. Boy that is still fun to say.

Of all actual Super Bowl participants, none made the big game again the next season. That doesn’t seem to bode well for 49er and Raven fans, now does it?

So what about the 2013 season? Well, after searching high and low and comparing picks from various media outlets, I have determined the consensus choices from the AFC and the NFC to represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl. Those teams are….

2013 Preseason Consensus Super Bowl Favorites

NFC – Seattle Seahawks

AFC – Denver Broncos

Alternates: Each conference also has an alternate choice, a team favored to make the Super Bowl, but not as highly as the overall choice. And since the inception of the Super Bust, there has actually been two preseason favorites that did meet expectations, so it’s good to keep an alternate choice in reserve for each conference. Because we still need the revenue from this imaginary game or the NFL will go broke.

NFC – Green Bay Packers

AFC – Houston Texans

So there you go, ladies and gentlemen, you’re choices for the 2013 Super Bust. Keep an eye on these teams throughout the season. Whilst others think they will go to and/or win the Super Bowl, I know they will only be in line for a Bust.

On Tap Tonight

Kansas City (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1)

Ok, you already know KC won. And for the record I did pick them. I question Philadelphia’s defensive abilities at this point, and after watching the game, their ball security. But mostly, I remember McNabb’s first game against Philadelphia. And while Donovan was running on fumes, as we saw later that season, he still was able to triumph over his old team. So I figured Andy Reid would do the same. And Reid did not let me down.

Chiefs over Eagles