The Crystal Ball 2012 The Wild Cards

Teams have now finally adopted the idea that being sharp and prepared entering the playoffs is better than safe and rested.

Something tells me the first time a proposed playoff juggernaut gets it's star player, read quarterback, injured in a meaningless end of season game, resting starters will become in vogue again.

Opening Kickoff

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis announced this week he will retire after Baltimore's season ends. I don't know if I like the idea of an NFL without someone as hate-able as Ray Ray in it. I bet this is how my dad felt when Jack Tatum retired.

The Way It Was

Megatron successfully defeated the Madden Curse! Well, unless you look at that 4-12 record and a reversion to the Lions losing ways. Then, maybe not so much.

I guess the Giants waited a wee bit too long to turn on the post season power play.

Dang it, win one for Chuck really does have a ring to it. Ok, I'll admit, I picked Houston because I didn't know how much Pagano would be helpful since he's been too busy battling for his life most of the season. But damn if the guy didn't have his chops right from the start of the game. I tip my hat to you Chuck.

Speaking of the Colts, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is getting a ton of talk about being a head coach. How intriguing for a guy who supposedly "retired" in January 2012.

Week 17, and typically there is very little to play for, even for playoff bound teams. Most of the time, all that is at stake is personal pride.

But after watching the final week of the 2012 NFL regular season, I must ask. Personal pride, where was it?

Not in New Orleans, where a bitter, angry yet loser group of players dressed as Saints allowed themselves to get rolled at home by a crappy Carolina team.

Not in Atlanta, where a team that has been regular season juggernauts but post season all-for-naughts decided to crap the turf in front of their home fans and set a bad tone by limping into the playoffs.

Not in Houston, where the Texans returned home still without a win in Indianapolis and continuing their late season swoon. Not only did they lose the #1 seed and home field advantage, but they lost a bye week as well. Anyone who watched them get spanked by Green Bay realized long ago they are not the toast of the conference.

Not in Detroit, where the team seemed more interested in a meaningless stat than winning a game. And win they did not do.

The Steel Pit

Steelers 24 - Cleveland 10

Midway through the first quarter, during Cleveland's epic drive that started at their own 5 yard line, I hit the DVR remote and tried to fast forward. Yes, even I was looking to end this disappointing season faster.

I wasn't the only ones, since it seemed like the only players playing like they cared were Troy Polamalu and Brett Keisel. And of course, this being the 2012 season, we can't have a Steeler game without a serious injury.

This week Keisel suffered the injury. Well and Keenan Ivory Lewis left with an injured knee, and David DeCastro left with a "stinger".

Overall, the game was rather lackluster or even interesting. The Steelers embattled special teams were fooled by a fake punt, again. 3 bad and stupid defensive plays in a 4 play sequence led to a Cleveland touchdown and more embarrassment in a ridiculously embarrassing season.

Todd Haley was in full douche mode. Two drives, two 2nd and 2 situations, two third and 1 situations. 4 plays, Haley called a run up the middle each time. Total net yardage of all 4 plays, -2 yards. Result of each drive, punt. Now, tell me again how this new focus on the running game instead of utilizing your best offensive player is better?

Regardless, the season is now at an end. With any luck, the return of chairman emeritus Dan Rooney will straighten out a few messes and help get this ship back on the right path. I mean, come on Steelers. We are spoiled fans, get back to spoiling us!

Upon Further Review

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis announced this week that at the conclusion of Baltimore's playoff run, he will retire. Lewis, who has been the centerpiece of a stifling defense and the franchise's first draft pick after it's move to Baltimore, will conclude a 17 year career, possibly as early as this weekend.

Lewis' on field resume all but guarantees he will be a Hall of Fame honoree one day, most likely in his first year of eligibility. And while he has been a perennial thorn in my side as a Steeler fan, I do not question those credentials or his inevitable inclusion in the Hall of Fame based on his NFL career. I have found him the one player whom I love to hate the most, and his participation in the Ravens/Steelers rivalry has made many of the games memorable and the Steeler victories that much more enjoyable.

But as the career retrospectives roll in, I find it disturbingly curious as to how often I've been reading about what a great man Lewis is, how God fearing he is, what an inspiration he has become to so many, yet it is almost completely ignored or at least glossed over that this great man was once charged with double murder.

ESPN, who will be hiring Lewis after his career concludes, has been the worst in this deification of Lewis. For the three days since he announced his retirement, ESPN has treated Lewis as though he's a returning bishop coming home from missionary work where he saved souls and cured cancer. It has been rather embarrassing to watch and further erodes ESPN's already questionable journalistic credentials.

Now, I am a big fan of redemption stories, of which I have said often. In fact, I supported Michael Vick's potential redemption despite reviling the man and despising what he did to those poor animals. But no matter what Vick does from here on out in his career and life, his dog fighting past will always be a part of the narrative of his life, for good or bad.

Lewis was charged with murder, plea bargained down to a charge of obstruction of justice in return for testimony against two others with him that fateful night. Those two men stood trial for murder, but both were acquitted. Lewis eventually made settlements with the families of the victims. The murders remain unsolved, and no one has ever been brought to justice for the death of two young men.

Now, that Ray Lewis came from that situation in 2000 to being a Super Bowl MVP, lock for the Hall of Fame, one of the most respected players in the NFL, an inspiration to many as well as a powerful force for many charities and causes is a great redemption story if you think about it. But that story cannot be told if you ignore the first part, the fall from grace. Lewis himself knew this in this article from Sports Illustrated from six years ago when he discusses what happened then and how he's grown since. And whether you believe him or not is immaterial, at least he discussed this salient part of his life unlike everyone else now.

I'm not accusing Lewis of murder, or trying to insinuate such things about him. Nor am I saying Lewis hasn't changed, grown and become a better man. Although I have no doubt Ray Lewis of today would never get himself in the same situation of Ray Lewis of 1999. But I find it troubling that no one is talking about this very important part of his career and legacy as a super star athlete as we put him on a pedestal I question he deserves. And I am not the only one who has noticed this stunning lack of information, either.

If you want to fete Ray Lewis and his career, feel free. He has definitely earned that. If you want to discuss all of his great off the field work, please do. He does quite a bit for charity and the Baltimore community. But if you want to laud the character of the man, make sure you also include the small chapter where he played some part in the deaths of two people. His actions that night and afterward speak as much to his character as his charity work, and are part of the narrative of his life, for good or bad.

Duck Duck Coach

Good gravy, was Monday a roller coaster ride of football firing madness! I barely had time to process one coach or general manager dismissal before the next one came flying down the pike. Well, let's get to some recap and analysis, before the next round starts!

New York Jets - GM Mike Tannenbaum was relieved of his duties in a power struggle with Rex Ryan. Ryan obviously won, but I wonder why owner Woody Johnson didn't just dump both morons.

Jacksonville Jaguars - GM Gene Smith was let go. I imagine without significant improvement, Mike Mularkey will be let go next year.

Cleveland Browns - Jimmy Haslam to the surprise of no one fired head coach Pat Shurmur and GM Tom Heckert. Who knows if Shurmur and Heckert could have turned things around, but new ownership usually means owners want their guys. Haslam interviewed Penn State coach Bill O'Brien, who opted to stay at PSU. I know the situation in Happy Valley is less than idea, and Tom Corbett is making it worse, but it bugs me that he was even looking.

Kansas City Chiefs - Romeo Crennel gone. Scott Pioli gone. Chiefs fans got their wish. I hope they remember that next season with Andy Reid.

Philadelphia Eagles - To the surprise of no one, the team parted ways with long time coach Andy Reid. Reid is already looking for his next gig, which we'll discuss next week. The Eagles, have had interest in O'Brien and Bruce Arians.

Chicago Bears - In a bit of a surprised, the team fired head coach Lovie Smith for yet another second half collapse. The Bears have also shown interest in Arians, who will only take the job to work with the mercurial Jay Cutler if he loses his marbles.

Buffalo Bills - Fired the underwhelming Chan Gailey and his entire coaching staff. Man, Dave Wannstedt just cannot cut a break anywhere. Perhaps he could apply for Chicago's head coaching vacancy, return home again. That's a theme I'm very interested in, which you'll see shortly.

San Diego Chargers - They fired both Norv Turner and GM A.J. Smith. While that sounds great, I have read that one of Dean Spanos' sons could be named in a co-general manager sort of position. That sounds like just making things worse.

Oakland Raiders - The team fired half of its coaching staff, but kept head coach Dennis Allen. Jeez no pressure there Dennis. Sounds to me like they're setting up the young coach for failure and a future firing. The spirit of Al Davis lives on!

Arizona Cardinals - The team fired Ken Whisenhunt and GM Rod Graves. The Lady K, who hated the Todd Haley hiring in Pittsburgh from day one, excitedly wants to hire Whis to be Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator again. I mentioned there's only one problem, Haley still holds that job. Maybe not for long, as Arizona sought and received permission to interview Haley. Things now just got interesting.

Saddle Up!

Strap on your spurs kiddies, It’s time once again to pick your playoff horse. Sad your team did not make the playoffs? Lost about whom to root for over the next few weeks? Wondering who you can get behind in the big games while your team is sitting at home eating Fritos? Then you’ve come to the right place as we will help you pick your playoff horse.

Those new to The Crystal Ball are asking yourself what the deuce is a playoff horse? A playoff horse is merely your temporary team for whom to root during the playoffs if your favorite boys are sitting home in January. Playoff football is so much fun and so exciting, no one wants to be left out. Thus, the invention of the Playoff Horse!

Unsure of how to pick your playoff horse? Then rest easy, your friends here at The Crystal Ball have you covered. Here is all you need to know as you go forth into the NFL post season with a temporary rooting interest.

1. Avoid teams from your division – This has too many incestuous ramifications, and could create bad karma for your team next year. Plus, if your divisional opponent won the Super Bowl with you rooting for them, would you be able to live with yourself? Avoid division teams at all costs.
2. Avoid traditional rivalry teams – This is paramount, and can create as much bad karma as a division rival. If you are a Raiders fan, you do not root for Denver ever. You would never see a Cowboys fans rooting for Philadelphia. Plus, if you did that, wouldn’t you just feel sleazy, like you were hitting on your best friend’s girlfriend?
3. Avoid teams that beat up on your team – Sure, your team had a bad year, but why rub their noses in it by rooting for a team who tortured them?
4. Never buy any merchandise of your playoff horse – This is a very short term commitment, no need to invest any money in it. Plus, you could be labeled as a band wagon fan or even bring bad football karma to your team. You never want to split your true loyalties. And, if any of your family or friends who know nothing about football sees this merchandise, it could lead them to believe this is your favorite team and the next thing you know you find Seattle Seahawks Salt and Pepper shakers under your tree next Christmas. Always a bad thing.
5. Look for teams that did not play yours - This makes it easier to cheer for your playoff horse, since you cannot create bad karma or look like a band wagon fan. Plus, you will not be reminded of when they played your team this season, which could be a bad memory.
6. Try to find a positive connection to your favorite team – Does your playoff horse play in the same state as your team? That works. Are their former players from your team on their roster? Probably, so why not root for those guys, you liked them at one point in their careers. Do you have a friend who is a big fan of a team? Go with his or her team.
7. Look for the sleeper – This is a great one, since if you pick the right team, and they go all the way, you look like a genius. And if they lose, well, you have lost nothing. There is always one team lurking and ready to pounce; the only question is if they could go all the way. Maybe they just need some extra cheer.
8. Pick one team from each conference – Always have two, it increases your odds for making it through the playoffs. Plus, if they both happen to make it to the big game, then you look like an uber genius. On the off chance this should happen, switch all support to the team representing your conference. It’s always good for your real team to be in the more powerful, and Super Bowl laden conference. Trust me, the 80’s and 90’s were rough on us AFC folks.
9. You must pick your horses before the playoffs begin – Yes, I know, this only gives you a week to mourn your season’s end and then find someone to root for, even if it’s only half heartedly. But you cannot cheat by peeking at Wild Card weekend and seeing who might really have a shot.
10. If your horses lose before the Super Bowl, you are done – Just like if your own team were eliminated from the playoffs, so too go your temporary allegiances.  After that, you can only pick winners for each game. Well, if you have a few bucks on the game, then cheer away. But if not, then just watch as an objective party. Now, if you want to root still, my advice is to root against the teams you cannot stand. If you are any true fan, I’m sure there will be more than a few of those around, even when there are only two remaining combatants.

Remember, this is only for the short term and just for a little fun. You are just rooting for a team so you can create a little vested interest in the playoffs. After the team is done, or the playoffs end, so does your support for your playoff horse. Any cheering for them after that means you are either gleaming off of their success and that would compromise your own team, or you are a band wagon fan, and that would really hurt your team and your credibility. You never want to do anything that would compromise your true allegiances. With that in mind, go out there and find your playoff horse, have a blast and good luck!

For full transparency, I will now give you my two playoff horses for the 2012 NFL Postseason. Let's see if I know anything.

AFC: Indianapolis Colts - Yes, New England and Denver would be more apropos, and probably smarter choices, but hey, there will be nothing more fun than to root for such a magical season and feel good story as Chuck Pagano and his 2012 Colts.

NFC: Seattle Seahawks - I was going to go with Green Bay, and still think they could win it all. And Washington is a fun, sexy pick. But Seattle has been under the radar, and they could go all the way with their underrated rookie quarterback. Well, only if they can avoid the Packers in the playoffs and karma biting them on the butt for the interception/touchdown.

Hmmm, I picked two teams each with a rookie quarterback. I don't know squat. Good luck everyone!

He Said He Said

“I believe the NFL doesn‘t like us because we‘ve been good for so long that people are jealous of us. We‘ve got the most Super Bowl rings, best organization and best fan base. So people just naturally hate us." - Steelers linebacker Larry Foote on why no Steeler defensive player was named to the Pro Bowl

No Larry, no defensive players in the Pro Bowl is because your team went 8-8 with the defense giving up 30+ points to the likes of Oakland, Tennessee and San Diego.

“I am embarrassed by the poor product we gave our fans this season, and I believe we have no choice but to move the franchise in a different direction.” - Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt

All of us were embarrassed Clark.

“Ultimately our objective is to put together an organization that will be the best at everything we do. On the field, our only goal is trying to win championships.” - Browns CEO Joe Banner

Just like the one you worked on assembling in Philadelphia? Wait, too soon to talk about the Dream Team?

"Three or 4 years old, probably. Since I started.'' - Jets quarterback Tim Tebow on the last time he played so little in a football season

I know there are tons of people don't like Tebow or his game, but I'm still rooting for him. If only because a) he's turning into an underdog despite his global media presence and b) it would tick so many people off.

"Well, he has played really well in a lot of big games in his career." -- Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett on Tony Romo

Name one big game.

“I thought we started out on the right foot in terms of dominating time of possession and converting third downs. We did what was required to possess the ball and win football games. Obviously we didn‘t ascend in the second half of the season in those areas. It was an Achilles‘ heel for us.” - Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin on his team's offensive performance this season

Yes, well and defense, special teams, coaching, play calling and certain ownership moves. That should just about cover all of the Achilles' heels.

"It might be a little unfair of me to put that pressure on that new head coach already, but the way the NFL operates, there is relative parity. And you can turn things around quickly." - Browns owner Jimmy Haslam

I don't think there's anything you can do to fix the Browns, quickly or otherwise.

"Obviously, he's earned any phone call he gets, he's earned that right," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said of Arians, who replaced him for 12 games while Pagano underwent chemotherapy for leukemia. "And let me just say this, we do not want to lose Bruce Arians. We know who he is and what he's meant to this football team ..." - Colts head coach Chuck Pagano on offensive coordinator Bruce Arians career options.

Don't know what you got till it's gone....

"It's better to be respected, than being liked. To hell with being liked!" - Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis

It's better to turn state's witness and plead down to obstruction of justice instead of standing trial for double murder.

Idiot of the Week

This week we bestow the honor of idiot to Baltimore Raven fans on Twitter that were angered by fictional character Pittsburgh Dad.

Pittsburgh Dad is a You Tube series of skits centered around your typical Pittsburgh father.. The character rants and raves about a great many things which of course includes talk about Pittsburgh sports.

After Ray Lewis announced his impending retirement, Pittsburgh Dad made a joke about Lewis and his past legal troubles on Twitter. Fans of course re-tweeted this joke and eventually it found its way to some Ravens fans.

These fans lost their minds, and were raging at Pittsburgh Dad, even telling him to go die. Of course, none of them seem to realize they were raging in anger at a fictional character.

So for getting upset about a joke, wishing death upon a fictional character, and ignoring the irony of wanting someone to die in defense of their beloved linebacker who was once charged with double murder, Baltimore fans you are all idiots.

On Tap This Week

Ok, let's face the final tallies.

Last week: 11-5

Season to Date: 164-92

Ok, that was a strong finish, and with the Lady K winning two weeks and myself one, I'll call this a successful season. Now, let's move on to the ultimate Quixotic adventure, picking a perfect post season.

Before we proceed, I would like to point out a theory I have been working on, mainly that winning at the end of the season matters. Of the last 10 Super Bowl winners, only the New York Giants lost their last game of the regular season. Every other Super Bowl winner finished the season with a win. This stat did not surprise me at all.

When a team is comfortable going into the playoffs with a loss, that means they're comfortable losing in the playoffs. You set a tone throughout the season, mainly to win, and you reinforce it at the end. If you suddenly switch directions, and show you are fine with accepting a loss, then you show you are willing to be a loser. This is a lesson that Peyton Manning has taken years to learn. It would seem that now, in his current incarnation as a Bronco, he has learned that conceding defeat is not the way to go.

While I don't think this is a tell all indicator of who will win the Super Bowl, I do think it is a definite measuring stick which I will keep in mind with each week's pick. And just so we all know...

Playoff teams who won their regular season finale: Denver, New England, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington, Minnesota

Playoff teams who lost their regular season finale: Houston, Baltimore, Atlanta, Green Bay

That should add a nice level of confusion. On with the picks!

Taking the Week Off: Atlanta, Denver, New England, San Francisco

Saturday

Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4)

Look, I am as excited for Houston as I am to wear a pair of wet hiking boots all day. The Texans have been falling apart over the last month, and look terrible heading into the playoffs. When they get ousted in the divisional round, no one will be surprised. Honestly, I'd like to say they'll get finished off this weekend, but I can't give Cincinnati that much credit. Andy Dalton's play has declined over the second half of the season, and he, plus his offense, have shown me no reason to feel confident in going into Houston and defeating a markedly better team. At least for this week, the Texans will play like potential champions.

Texans over Bengals

Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5)

Ok, yes, I know Minnesota beat Green Bay last week. But let me ask you this. Last week, Minnesota left everything on the line at home. This week, they're on the road, on the Frozen Tundra (which is not frozen by the way), against a team that lost out on a first round bye thanks to replacement referees. Now, how good do you feel about the Minnesota Petersons?

Packers over Vikings

Sunday

Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6)

Yes, you can pull the former team vs. current team angle. You can bring up Cam Cameron getting fired as a built in excuse for failure. Or you can even bring up the injury depleted Ravens defense. But this comes down to a battle of feel good stories. So ask yourself before the game who you want to root for. Is it the rookie quarterback and his discarded offensive coordinator who together raised up a team after their head coach was stricken with cancer? Or do you want to root for the retiring linebacker who has such a great public relations team that everyone seems to forget and ignore his involvement in a murder trial? Easy. At least ESPN will get to have Ray Ray at work in time for the divisional round.

Colts over Ravens

Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6)

Ok, I think this could be the most exciting matchup of the weekend too. Or at least I did, until I watched RGIII drag his leg behind him against the Cowboys last week. While he's still exciting and fun to watch, RGIII is not himself. But he will be next year. And anyway, Seattle has to win. They're destined to face Green Bay in the playoffs if only to make Roger Goodell look like a fool.

Seahawks over Redskins