The Crystal Ball 2012 Week 1 Season Opener

Are you feeling it? That sensation, like sitting by the fire with a cup of hot cocoa on a chilly evening. Like the crisp, cool air in the morning of a bright winter day. Like a comfortable bed filled with soft pillows and the blankets pulled all the way up to your chin. That warm, comfortable, familiar feeling of being wrapped in the embrace of your favorite security blanket. Yes, you are feeling it, but it’s none of those things providing that feeling of warmth, security, comfort and familiarity. It’s the return of the NFL! Yes, I may have been listening to a wee bit too much NFL Films music as of late, so sue me.

Opening Kickoff

10 quarterbacks drafted in the last two years, including 5 rookies from this year’s draft, will take the starting reins for their team this week. With this sort of youth movement, my suggestion for free agent quarterback Donovan McNabb is to call Brett Favre and get his recommendations regarding lawn tractors.

The Emperor has Fused Vertebrae

Sunday evening will bring us the return of the great Peyton Manning who is, as the stories seem to imply, the greatest quarterback who ever lived. Yes, the grandiose prose that seems to emanate regarding Manning has become a bit overwhelming. While I will not question Peyton’s qualifications or achievements, or any claim laid by others regarding his all-time rank amongst quarterbacks, I find it consistently amusing how so much effusive praise is laid at his feet, yet there are no less than three active quarterbacks in the NFL right now with more Super Bowl rings than Manning. One of whom just happens to be his little brother. I tend to rate greatness on a scale of how often did you beat everyone to the ultimate prize, not be named NFL Most Valuable Quarterback, I mean Player. But I digress.

The NFL saw fit to televise Manning’s return to football in prime time, so the football universe would center around the now healed quarterback as he takes the field for the first time as a Denver Bronco. And I’m sure the football world will be watching with rapt attention. More than one national sports writer has raised the aspirations and hopes for the 2012 Bronco squad, some even going so far as to place the team in the Super Bowl, and others stating the Broncos will walk away with the crown. Evidence would state this to be unlikely, considering many of the issues that plagued Denver last year still exist, the offensive supporting cast is not of the caliber Manning is accustomed to and Manning’s personal playoff record. But, as the saying goes, on any given Sunday…

But what concerns me most is the actual status of Manning’s healed neck. Thus far, we have heard the nice tale weaved that the neck is healed, he is experiencing no pain, and he’s throwing as well as he once did. The Peyton Manning of two years ago is back! That sounds great in print, but how will it translate to the field?

Manning has never been one to handle contact well. He obviously doesn’t like it. If you get him thinking about it, he can be rattled and beaten. For one of the best examples, look at the 2005 AFC Divisional Round game against Pittsburgh. The Steeler defense pressured Manning relentlessly, and he only looked like his typical self for part of one quarter. I wonder how he’ll be able to handle a pass rush now with the thought of how his surgically repaired neck will fare if he should get hit running in the back of his mind.

What concerns me even more is the thought that his neck will not hold up against a hit, and one body blow could end his game, season, career and potentially effect him for the remainder of his life. It only takes one hit to end a career, just ask Joe Thiemann.

The NFL has never seen a player of the stature and popularity that Manning enjoys being carted off the field for the last time. If Manning should suffer an injury that would end his career on the field, it would be a public relations nightmare for the NFL. People would be openly question the NFL’s safety policies, interest in watching the game and Roger Goodell and his safety initiative. There would be a slew of articles and talking heads loudly demanding how the doctors, the Broncos and the NFL in general could allow a player with such a tenuous medical condition to play. And if this potential hit came during a game officiated by replacement referees, there’s a good chance all hell could break loose in the sports talk media world.

But what is worse is how this hopefully unlikely scenario would effect the defensive player who hits him. Manning would not be taken down by one of the NFL’s typical heavy hitters, that's not how these things happen. It will not come from a hit from James Harrison or Ray Lewis. This hypothetical hit will come from a no name defensive player on what will initially look like a routine hit or sack. Afterward will be when everyone realizes what has happened, and this young man will find himself thrust into the spotlight, cast as the villain and forever disparaged. He will have to forever live with the idea that he ended Peyton Manning’s career. That’s a heck of a thing to lay on someone.

I know Manning is one of those uber competitive types, and he doesn’t feel his time as a player is yet over. And obviously he has come to terms to what his body can or cannot do, and is willing to accept any risk that may come with his continued participation in a violent profession. I understand that. But I hope his neck is fully healed, and he is able to absorb the typical punishment that comes with playing in the NFL. Because if he’s not, it will effect a great many people, potentially change the NFL as we know it, and damage not only his future life, but that of someone who was just trying to do his job.

On Tap Tonight

Once again we embark on the quixotic journey of predicting the outcome of NFL contests, the original raison d'être that created The Crystal Ball. To note for anyone new to this little football tome; we do not try to divine final scores or pick with point spreads involved. Just a simple, old fashioned who’s gonna knock the slobber out of each other first straight up pick ‘em. Before we begin, let us reset our counters from the previous season.

Last week: 0-0

Season to Date: 0-0

So pristine and pure, much like the beauty contained in freshly fallen snow. You have to love the beginning of the season, when every team has a fresh start, new stories wait to be written, new legends born and hope abounds before the stench of failure permeates the atmosphere.

Before we begin I want to cover a minor point of procedure first. Since NFL scheduling has deemed it necessary to give us football on Thursday nights from the beginning of the season, there will be a change regarding Thursday picks. As we post on Sundays, and I’m not planning on doing a Thursday special every week, Thursday picks will included in the previous week’s column. So the pick for the Week 2 Thursday game will be seen at the end of the Week 1 column, as so forth. Call it a bonus pick. How the tally will work, well, I’m still working out the finer points. Although I’m sure I’ll screw that up somewhere along the line and need to go back and figure out the proper numbers with my trusty abacus.

Wednesday

Dallas (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

The biggest story line I've seen is regarding the revamped Cowboy defense, which has been laying waste through the pre-season. But I'm not sold on it just yet because Rob Ryan is still in charge, and you know he'll go for glory plays and sacks instead of contain and stops, and Eli Manning is savvy enough to exploit that. Especially at home in prime time. Personally, I’m rooting for an egregious officiating error against the Cowboys that causes them to lose the game. If that happens, Jerry Jones will be apoplectic the fallout should clean up this referee lockout mess but toot sweet.

Giants over Cowboys