The Crystal Ball 2010 Week 14 Thursday Night Special

.After another devastating home loss and the third straight multiple interception game from Peyton Manning, the Colts stand at 6-6 and in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in 9 years. The question du jour around the league regarding this situation is what is wrong with the Colts? There have been many theories and suppositions, all of which hold merit.

The Colts are suffering due to injuries, which have devastated their receiving corps, offensive line, secondary and running game. Their offensive line, beyond injury, has new components that are not quite the standard of what the team has fielded in the past and not as effective in clearing running lanes or maintaining pocket integrity. Their new receivers are not as pinpoint accurate with route running nor as sure handed as those whom they replace. The loss of Dallas Clark has left the offense without a tremendous receiver and blocker as well as the safety blanket for quick passing Peyton has been accustomed to over the years. Austin Collie’s absence has reduced Peyton’s reliable targets one step further. Their run defense is atrocious and their secondary is prone to giving up large gains. And personally, I do not believe Jim Caldwell is half the coach Tony Dungy was. I see parallels between Dungy’s departure and Caldwell’s ascension and that of Dick Vermeil retiring and handing the reins to Mike Martz in St. Louis 10 years ago.

Group all of these items together, and you can see how a once dominant team has hit the proverbial skids. But I think everyone is overlooking one key component. Peyton Manning does not improvise well and that is the true crux of the issue.

Through years of constant media saturation, we have come to know about Manning that he is a consummate student of the game. His preparation and study is the bar to which every other player should strive to reach. He knows everything about his offense inside and out, and with that he is able to do things leading the team that are almost indefensible. But what happens when you change things, throw him some curveballs so to speak? He falls apart.

Let’s think back to pre-2006, before Manning shed the label of cannot win the big one by becoming a Super Bowl Champion. During that time Manning would tear things up in the regular season, and his team seemed unstoppable. But when the playoffs hit, they fell apart, often at the hands of the Patriots and occasionally the Steelers. Why was that? Because those two teams in particular would throw different defensive looks at Peyton, increase the pressure on the pocket and break through the offense with defensive stunts that would either sack Manning or force him to scramble, something he does not do well. Basically, they took Manning out of his comfort zone, forced him to improvise and watched him fail.

Manning is very methodical and meticulous. He likes things a certain way, whether it’s the offensive calls or route running or even having a helmet that leaves a giant red welt on his forehead. He becomes uncomfortable in situations of which he has no answer or is unexpected. Right now, that’s exactly what he has with the team.

He doesn’t have trust in his new receivers. He feels pressure from the defense because of his now sub par offensive line even before the snap. Watch, he looks jittery and is getting the happy feet again. He knows he has no running game of which to speak, so he piles more pressure on himself to perform Herculean tasks, to increasingly disastrous results. He cannot adjust to a weakened pocket. He cannot account for receivers in the wrong position. And he does not have the capability to extend broken plays. And he is not used to the offensive coaching personnel, which have changed drastically in the past two seasons from the comfort level he’d grown with in Tom Moore and Tony Dungy over 10 seasons and 6 seasons respectively. He cannot improvise.

Until Peyton can learn how to buy time in a compromised pocket, coach up players on the field or be ready to change his throws based upon the weaknesses of his receivers, the Colts problems will continue until better personnel arrive via health or the draft. And something tells me that will be what it takes, because despite his nice turn on Saturday Night Live, I do not see Manning learning how to improvise this season.

Tonight’s Special

Indianapolis (6-6) at Tennessee (5-7)

With that being said, what about tonight’s game? We know what’s wrong with Indianapolis. What about Tennessee? Let’s see, the head coach is at odds with the starting quarterback, and both are at odds with the owner’s wishes. The rest of the team seems to act as though this little melodrama has them caught in the middle and they have Randy Moss. Who seems to be a team killer by his mere presence since he hasn’t done anything remotely controversial since arriving in Nashville. I’ll take the team that shows at least a united front.

Colts over Titans