The Crystal Ball Week 5

Originally Posted on Quick Thoughts on October 6, 2006.


I have some bad news for everyone. The NFL season is officially one quarter over. Now, before panic engulfs us, remember, there is still three quarters of the season left, as well as the playoffs to look forward to watching. Now, I know that 60 games are in the books, the outcomes decided and the participants moved on to the next match. We can mourn the loss of these games, or look forward to those ahead, and cherish them, knowing how fleeting, precious and rare they are. I choose the latter.

That was slightly melodramatic for football. It seems a bit much for me to be waxing poetic over contests of men in plastic hats smacking into each other. After all, it is just a game, right?

Of course it is just a game; it means nothing in the macrocosm of things. But it is a wonderful, fun and exciting game. Yes, I am feeling a bit giddy today. This Sunday, amid the din of thousands of Charger fans, I and the Lady K, and probably about 15,000 + Steeler fans will be wildly waving our Terrible Towels in a black and gold frenzy as Pittsburgh and San Diego collide on Sunday Night Football live from Qualcomm Stadium. We went to the game last year, with Pittsburgh fans estimated at about 15,000 or so, although being there I thought the number was higher than that. I bet it is much higher this year. It was fantastic; at certain points during the game, you could hear Steelers chants ringing through the stadium. We got home and watched the Tivo of the game, and you could hear it on the broadcast too. If I were a Chargers fan, I would have been mortified. Last year the Steelers came to San Diego after a bye week at 2-1, and looking for a win. This year, the Steelers come to San Diego after a bye week at 1-2, and desperately needing a win to turn their season in the right direction. Considering all the weapons San Diego has on offense and defense, I would be a bit scared, especially since they took Roethlisberger out near the end of the game last year. But thankfully, last week in Baltimore, the return of Martyball reared its head, to the chagrin of Chargers fans everywhere, and to my glee and delight, well almost glee and delight. I did pick them over the Ravens, but they threw it all away at the end of the game and made McNair look like McNabb. Yeesh. Nothing like playing not to lose; it is the quickest way to toss the game away. Hopefully, Shottenheimer will be in midseason form by Sunday night. Regardless, I will be front and center, well almost. We will be on the 45 yard line, 4 rows from the field right behind the Steelers bench. Close enough to see the spittle from Cowher’s mouth. Oooooh, I can hardly wait! But, I suppose there is some business at hand before I begin waxing poetic again about the violent ballet of receivers and defensive backs.

There was a definite improvement over last week. Not like I lit the world on fire, but better than the week before.

Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 33-27

Now, I doubt I will win any polls with an 8-6 week, but I will take it over recent performances any day. And for some fun, I checked back and looked at another set of numbers. Just to see, last week I marked 7 games I kept debating the winner in my head, and left the 7 I just decided right away blank. I wanted to see if by gut instinct how I did, and how I did by over analyzing. Here are those results.

Gut – 6-1
Thought – 2-5

This tells me two things. Either my instinct for football is through the roof, or those 7 games were just gimmes and pretty easy to determine and I am lousy at analysis. I would LOVE for it to be the first, because if it were, then I bid my adieu, and if you need me, just forward any message to Las Vegas, care of any casino sports book. Reality is, it is the second. To what degree, I am not sure. I would like to think considering how much football I have absorbed, I might be a little better than lousy regarding picking winners. But, hey, it is all chance anyway. There are times that even games that seem in the bag will go down to the wire, or upsets that you lose outright. Actually, I would probably be much better at this if I did not let my own feelings get in the way. Well, it’s too late for that, at least for one game each week. So I guess Pittsburgh best keep winning. There will always be a handful of games I’ll agonize over, but luckily, I keep a well stocked bar, so it should all work out.

With the season a quarter over, most people will give out awards and what not. I contemplated this, but could not come up with any suitable goofy names for awards. So I thought I would just throw out a few quick observations of what we’ve seen thus far this season.

New Orleans for once seems to be serious about football, and it could not have come at a better time for the community. A+ to the organization for coming through and an A++ for the new Saints for really working to give something to the fans. I don’t mean just on the field, I mean off the field. Special kudos go to Drew Brees, who said the city is now his home and has made it such, and Reggie Bush, for making many contributions of time and money toward the rebuilding of the city and of lives in the community. Many other players and team personnel have also contributed to the efforts to bring back the city, and they should be congratulated as well. Way to go guys.

The demises of Philadelphia and New England seem to be a tad premature. Philly went through their Super Bowl hangover year, and has come through a stronger team. We will see just how strong this Sunday. New England, I cannot even find the right verbiage. How do they do it? They pull these castaways and also rans off the street, slap a uniform on them and they look like all pro players. Seriously, when does their pact with Damien expire? It just makes me want to start chugging some Old Granddad.

The Super Bowl parade plans in Miami are on hold. A preseason favorite as AFC champions, the Dolphins look to have taken a major step back. I guess maybe Culpepper was not the answer. Or maybe it is Mularky who is not the answer. Nah, not the offensive coordinator that led the 2003 Steelers to a stellar 6-10 mark. He must know what he is doing. Must be something else, then.

Oakland is in danger of being shipped to NFL Europe. You think this is a joke, but I am not so sure. Why else would Roger Goodell, the new commissioner, choose to attend this game when potentially epic tilts will be taking place in the Meadowlands, The Linc and Qualcomm? The only reason I can think is that he is trying to determine how easy it would be to swap them with World Bowl champs the Frankfurt Galaxy.

Cincinnati to unveil new team nickname, the mean machine. Since last season, six different Bengals have been arrested nine times. Suddenly, that line from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off is ringing in my head. Nine times. How is that possible? Now, I know that these are young men who feel invincible and powerful and have money and are treated differently because of their athletic prowess, and every team has one or two cats that have a brush or two with the law. I am not saying its right, but it happens. But nine times? A few of them got busted more than once. And Odell Thurman is now suspended for the season, and it looks doubtful he’ll ever don a Bengals uniform again. Some control is needed, and quickly before these distractions overpower everything else. Hello, jerk hotline? Yes, I got a few I would like to report.

The T.O. circus’s extended stay in the Dallas area is in jeopardy. Poor Bill Parcells. He was looking to turn one more team around, to stroke his ego and lock in the Hall of Fame. Then he finds himself saddled with this nutcase for a season or more. One of them will be gone after this year, and it probably will be The Tuna and his now exponentially growing ulcer. Every press conference he gives, his ire seems to grow. I keep waiting for either his head to explode or for him to just lose it like Peter Finch in Network, grabbing a reporter and throttling him while screaming, “Can’t you bloodsuckers let a non-story die???” Either way, I’m riveted to see which will happen first.

Perennial sleeper team Arizona continues to sleep. Every year tons of people pick Arizona as their sleeper team, thus negating the status of being a sleeper. If everyone thinks they are going to do something, then it would not really be a surprise if they did, now would it? Yet every year they seem to fall flat on their face, usually with a look of shock and surprise. And why is that? They keep stockpiling all these offensive weapons; they should be lighting things up. I can sum it up in two words, offensive line. They have a crappy one, and never do a damn thing to improve it. So they keep trotting this broken one out, and then cannot figure out why their high priced running back can barely get 50 yards a game, and why their quarterback keeps getting sacked. On the plus side, their new stadium seems really nice.

All quarterbacks please see the team doctor for possible gout. Two quarterbacks have gone down this season for odd maladies. Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh needed an appendectomy, and Chris Simms in Tampa Bay had a ruptured spleen. Not your ordinary injury list. Roethlisberger is back, and Simms is on the road to recovery, which is good. But what is next, a wicked case of psoriasis? If this keeps up, the NFL will have to hire House M.D. to make sure things do not get out of hand.

This week the bye teams are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston and Seattle. Atlanta is looking fairly good at the quarter season mark sitting at 3-1. But if they cannot start developing a semblance of a passing game, they will not go far. I don’t believe Dunn or Vick will break down, but if everyone just stacks 8 in the box and dares Vick to throw the ball, which he does not seem to be able to nor care to improve upon, then how will their offense score? Cincinnati is also sitting pretty at 3-1, but after getting shellacked by the Patriots last week, all of their weaknesses were exposed and badly. So badly that if you take away a few errors from Pittsburgh, Cincinnati could very well be 2-2. They could not run the ball well, they cannot stop their opponents running game, and their playmakers are all gunning to be extras on Law and Order. I think the only surprising story from Cincinnati at this point would be if they led the local congregation in prayer services and then volunteered at the downtown soup kitchens. Other than that, nothing would surprise me. Houston is probably seething that their bye week came up now, just on the verge of a winning streak. I should not poke fun. Houston is looking much better than they have in the past. David Carr has definitely made strides in becoming an effective quarterback, and much better than one right now that will be suiting up in black and gold on Sunday night. Ahem! Sorry. And then there is Seattle. Boy did they get it handed to them Sunday night. I am a bit surprised Holmgren did not find a way to blame Alexander’s broken foot on the referees. Amazing how such a high powered offense can be stilled when they are reduced to one dimension. Indianapolis and Atlanta, please take notes on this, it could be important later in the season, and yes it will be on the test.


Buffalo at Chicago

Considering how quickly and efficiently Chicago dismantled Seattle last week, and that they are playing in Soldier Field again this week, I’m calling this one a no brainer.

Ok, last week I was watching the Sunday night game, and right after it became a rout, I kept thinking of what NBC could be doing to keep interest. And then it hit me, how oh how did we not have the Superfans in the booth for at least part of the game? You remember the Superfans, the gentlemen in the old SNL skit with George Wendt, Mike Myers and the late Chris Farley. All were big, both literally and figuratively, Bears fans that sat around at Ditka’s restaurant in Chicago and expounded on how bad the Bears would beat that day’s opponent, usually followed with a hearty, “Da Bears”. I kept thinking how genius that would be, just to have Myers and Wendt pop up out of nowhere. Even better, they could have done all the sideline reporting. Imagine how funny it would have been for Myers to feign being all indignant on having to report on the doings of the Seahawks. It would have been brilliant.

Chicago over Buffalo


Cleveland at Carolina

How about those Browns? Nice impressive come from behind win in Oakland last week. I knew they would not let me down, although it was dicey when Oakland went up 21-3. Luckily, they’re Oakland, so Cleveland had nothing to worry about. This week, well, Cleveland has much more to worry about, with Carolina beginning to find themselves again with a good win over New Orleans. Cleveland on the road, after traveling to the West Coast and back last week, I don’t think they have enough to overcome the Panthers. But they are improving, and that will be scary in the future.

Carolina over Cleveland


Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit has been on an offensive explosion the last two weeks, blowing up the scoreboard with their offense. Unfortunately, the defense that held Seattle to 9 points has also been blowing up, and opponents have been on a scoring binge as well. It seems they cannot do anything right. If the Ford family is serious about changing this team, they need to start at the top and dump Matt Millen. Heck, hire me, I’m cheaper and I know exactly what to do. They have some of the right players, but they need real coaches who will push the fundamentals such as strong defense, an effective run game and opportunistic special teams. Simple, yet so impossible anymore. Seriously, if they are interested, I will compose a mission statement of how to turn the team around. It’s not hard. Scour the free agent market and find a few blue chippers for the offensive line and the defensive backfield, bolster both lines through the draft. Talk to Edge James and find out if he really wants to whittle away the rest of his days in the Arizona sun. Find a good quarterback in the draft to mentor under Kitna along with a few linebackers and boom. You are on your way. It is starting to show progress in Cleveland, it can work in Detroit. And trust me, I am far cheaper than Millen, and I don’t even want a company car! But this week, forget it.

Minnesota over Detroit


Miami at New England

I knew, I KNEW that New England would come back and haunt me last week. I even said it; it will be a trap game. Everyone saw Cincy win and New England lose, and the crowd will lean toward Cincy. I even said for the near future; do not count New England out. And what do they do? They do what the Patriots seem to be brilliant at, they find something deep inside and stick it to me hardcore. Jerks! They marched into Cincinnati and proved me right, much to my chagrin since I picked the Bungles to win. Although, I did enjoy watching the Bungles lose, my only regret was that both teams could not take an L. This week, the Pats are back at home and welcoming the offensive juggernaut that is the Culpepper led Dolphins. Ugh. I do not know if I can even think of anything good about this one. Oh yeah, it will end.

New England over Miami


St. Louis at Green Bay

For once, Green Bay is looking like they might be on the road to recovery. They played the Eagles tough on Monday night, and it still surprised me that they held the lead into the third quarter. But, stupid penalties, mistakes and too much time on the field for the defense wore them down, and they collapsed in the end. Being without Ahman Green sure hurt their chances as well. I do not think it will bode well for Favre this week that St. Louis is tied for leading the league in interceptions. Or that the Rams suddenly found an offensive spark last week and put up 41 points. Or that he banged his noggin near the end of the Eagles game.

St. Louis over Green Bay


Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Tampa has Mac Attack. Well, at least Buccaneer fans hope so. This week, they will start QB Bruce Gradkowski, formerly a standout at Toledo. Toledo, of course, is in the MAC conference, which has brought us such quarterbacks as Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Frye and Super Bowl Champion Ben Roethlisberger. So Bruce, success is there to be had. However, he has to play his first game in what will no doubt be a rollicking Superdome, which proved to be a difficult place to play for the experienced Michael Vick. Nothing like a trial by fire. It is hard to win right out of the gate, especially on the road against a tough opponent. Not impossible, Roethlisberger did it in his first start in Miami, but the weather and their running game helped. The Saints will not be as forgiving as a hurricane was to Ben, and Tampa’s season will continue to slip away.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay


Tennessee at Indianapolis

Please, like there is any question with this one. Heck, with his sudden outburst of running last week, I bet Peyton Manning himself could gain a hundred yards in this game. I see Jim Sorgi getting some work this week. I hope he stretches before he trots out onto the field. I mean something other than his clipboard arm, uhhh, I mean passing arm. The only thing I fear is that after this game, Indy will be 5-0, and a few early bird talking heads will begin to mention the undefeated season. Does this mean they will start the watch again for 16-0, and we’ll be forced to hear, for yet another season, those excruciating stories about the 1972 Dolphins and how they pop champagne when the last undefeated team loses their first game, celebrating someone’s defeat and their ego that they still remain the only unbeaten team in league history? Maybe they will cut us a break and wait until they hit 8-0 before the real nonsense reporting begins. I sure hope not. If I do not get my Peyton fix at least once every 30 seconds, I start going through wicked withdrawal symptoms. Or it may just be nicotine withdrawal. Hmmmm, best not to take a chance. Now where is that Sprint/Nextel commercial…..

Indianapolis over Tennessee


Washington at N.Y. Giants

Now this is a tough one. Washington won a barn burner last week against Jacksonville, with the offense blowing up for 36 points against a good Jaguars team. But this week they play away against a division rival. The Giants had the week off to regroup after getting pasted by Seattle, so they are well rested, but will it mean a better result on the field? I have no idea. I am making a guess, like all of these picks are something other than guesses, and going with the hot hand that is not turning on its master.

Washington over N.Y. Giants


Kansas City at Arizona

Wow, did KC make me look like a fool. 41 points they hung on the 49ers. Ouch. That one was so far off, I did not even feel bad about it. I could not, there was too much shock. But hey, good for Damon Huard for showing the world he has some QB in him. Of course, it did not hurt that they were playing Frisco. And it will not hurt that they are playing Arizona this week. Remember, Arizona barely beat the 49ers in the first week, the same 49ers that KC demolished last week. By that logic, KC should beat the stuffing out of the Cardinals. Yet unfortunately, that kind of logic never works. But considering Arizona is moving to the Matt Leinart era early, since Warner cannot seem to hold onto a ball anymore, I do not like their chances. Remember, even the great Peyton Manning went 3-13 his first season. With that sieve of a line in front of him causing him to run for his life all day, Leinart would be lucky to post so lofty of record.

Kansas City over Arizona


N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville

Now this game scares me. Jacksonville found a bunch of offense, but their defense slipped last week and they lost in overtime. Meanwhile, the Jets seem to be willing to try almost anything to get a win. Going for it on 4th down when you could grab three easy points? Kind of stupid, but ballsy, and it shows your team that you want them to win. If they had managed to leave Peyton with a little less time on the clock, they might have won that game. I really don’t know on this one. Both are coming off a loss and want to get back on the winning track. This one is a tougher call than the Washington game. How apropos that both New York teams are involved in the toughest ones to call this week. And both of the New York teams always seem to find a way to throw a monkey wrench into the works. Ahhh, screw it, I like the Jags better, plus they are not coached by a former Patriot assistant. Guess that made this easier.

Jacksonville over N.Y. Jets


Oakland at San Francisco

So much for my prognosis on the revival of the 49ers. Boy, did they take it on the chin last week. But, lucky for them, they have Oakland this week. And nothing salves wounded pride like playing Oakland. This one is as easy as pie.

Personally, and not in any way secretly, I am hoping for Oakland to go 0-16. The perfect mark of ineptitude. Imagine the possibilities for them if they did this almost impossible task. They would always be in the news, smack dab on the front page every week. Everyone would be talking about them; how could you resist a story about such a mess? If they win even one game, the story is gone, and no one cares. They will fade into the background as just another crappy team. Not the crappiest team, like the team they could be. Plus, this pathetic mark has not been achieved in years. I believe the last team to do it was the expansion Buccaneers in 1976 (of course, they lost 26 straight, but lets take this one season at a time). That means a whole generation has grown up without seeing the pinnacle of ineffectiveness. This is something that we all should witness, so we can tell our grandchildren that yes, we were there when the Raiders completely bottomed out and were traded to the CFL for the Argonauts.

San Francisco over Oakland


Dallas at Philadelphia

To many, this is the game of the week. And I bet if the new schedule flipping format had yet started, this one would be moved to Sunday Night. T.O.’s triumphant return to Philadelphia. He is about to find out real fast how vitriolic the Eagle faithful can be. I bet you never knew that 65,000 + fans could boo for three straight hours. Be prepared to watch it live on TV. My only question is what the crazier fans will throw at him. It’s too early for snowballs, and I bet they frisk for batteries these days. The Eagles are a bit banged up, and if Westbrook does not play, they could be in serious trouble. It was obvious they need him badly to make their offense effective. In the Eagle’s favor, McNabb is looking stellar thus far this season, but he will need to be sharp right out of the gate. Also, last time I checked, Drew Bledsoe was still starting for the Cowboys, so that should make racking up sacks that much easier for the Philly D. And you know T.O. will be clamoring to get the ball all game long, just to stick it to the Eagles. If he does not, look for a mental breakdown. This is going to be a good one, and it is difficult to pick a winner between to fierce division rivals. But I cannot stand the Cowboys, and even less with T.O. on their roster. There I go, letting emotion get to me. Ah, so what.

Philadelphia over Dallas


Pittsburgh at San Diego

Oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man! I have pretty much covered this game. There are a lot of question marks for this one, I know that already. Will Roethlisberger be ready to go and in sync with the offense? Will Willie be ready to pull the load? Will Troy’s shoulder be good to go? Will everyone play smart and keep their heads on straight while playing the road? Who will be returning punts? Who will step up in the receiving corps? Tons of questions, yet I find no need to worry. Every time I have seen them live, they have won. Time to keep up that tradition, and not a moment too soon.

One side note, I found this great piece by Ron Green Jr. of McClatchy Newspapers in the San Jose Mercury News. He was doing some picks this week, and this is his take on the game.

“An on-line poll in San Diego is seeking a nickname for the Chargers' defense so the guys will have something to put on the vanity tags on their Range Rovers. Among the suggestions are:
The Blue Meanies (sounds like something now banned from baseball locker rooms); the Border Patrol (let's keep politics out of this); the Electric Blanket (makes you think of linebackers spooning each other); the Electric Fence (who thought that was a good idea?); and, the Frightenin' Lightnin' (sounds like a ride at Carowinds).

The Steel Curtain, the Chargers will be reminded, was already taken. Steelers 23, Chargers 22.”

Seems to sum it up the best to me.

Pittsburgh over San Diego

Baltimore at Denver

Alright, I know, say it. Baltimore won a real game against a real opponent. So that proves they are for real, right? Wrong. Nope, I am still not buying it. San Diego was the first team they beat with a winning record. So obviously stocking up on cupcakes helps their record. Second, they did not win that game as much as San Diego choked and gave it to them. I made the mistake a few weeks back of backing Eli Manning after one good quarter of football. I will not make the same mistake of backing McNair after 4 good minutes of football. But if they win this week, not only will I believe they are for real, I will be officially nervous and need to order more Dramamine and sick bags.

Denver over Baltimore