The Crystal Ball Week 3

Originally posted on Quick Thoughts on September 22, 2006


Hello sports fans! Or maybe sports fan? Anyone left after last week? I hope no one used my picks as a basis in an attempt to double your paycheck. It certainly was not a stellar week, not horrible, but not stellar by any means. And hey, it could have been worse, last season I started off the first two weeks 6-10. But that is the beauty of football, there is always next week, and as the saying goes, anything can happen on any given Sunday. And we have a new name here, so perhaps that will add to the success. Of course, with only two weeks under our belts, it is still tough to see who will be good and who will be, well, Oakland. With that in mind, let us forge forward and see if we can get back to double digit wins this week.

A few observations before we get to the weekly tally and the games themselves.….

I think of all the networks, NBC is by far the best with their broadcasts. Their game coverage is excellent, they have the best broadcasting team by far, even if John Madden has slipped and tends to do little more than spend the game praising his favorite player or players. Al Michaels is great at the play by play, and they have, at least thus far, resisted too much of the ridiculous sideline banter and human interest stories that have pervaded too much of many game broadcasts. Of course, this is NBC, home of the Olympics, where every athlete had to combat incredible odds, no one believing in them except the beloved family member who passed away just weeks before the event and is a long shot in every event they will enter. So it will only be a matter of time before we start hearing these kinds of stories about each team and player after every other play.

Not to go too far off onto a tangent, but is it just me, or is every single athlete in the Olympics the most hard luck athlete that has ever made it onto the Olympic team? I mean, it seems that they try to make each one as this super determined person who all they had to train and make it to the Olympics was a dirt road and a pair of old sneakers someone gave them from a second hand shop, and they had to battle against those who never believed, and personal tragedy and poverty and starvation and any other form of hardship you can imagine. I know there are athletes who do battle incredible odds to make it to the Olympics, but anymore its either participants from other countries, or long shots at qualifiers in this country that we really never hear about, because they did not make it. The U.S. Olympic team is one of the best funded, best sponsored, best equipped, best trained and best coached Olympic programs in the world. As far as facilities, money, equipment, time, coaching, medical care, nutrition and gear, most members of the team want for nothing. There are a few parts of the team that do not have every benefit, and you have to look pretty far down, at say curling or other teams of that stature, to find them. But for majority of team members, they have almost every benefit, and not many are really true hard luck cases who make it to the Olympics on a wing and a prayer. If they made it, their wing and prayer days are over. Ok, enough of that, back to the NFL coverage.

I also enjoy NBC’s pregame show, Football Night in America. I love the title, a nice play on Hockey Night in Canada, the long running Hockey program in of our northern neighbors. I thought that homage was nothing short of inspired. Plus their crew is a good one. Bob Costas is always entertaining and very informed for being a sportscaster who covers many different sports. Cris Collinsworth is excellent, although his pro Bengals, anti Steelers stance always bugs me. Yeah, you can tell he tries to mute it, but watch him this Sunday when they go to air after the game and see how he is when (I will never say if) Pittsburgh wins. Sterling Sharpe is a polished and knowledgeable football guy, and definitely brings something good to the table. And what can I say about Jerome Bettis? Ok, maybe a few things. He is definitely new to this, and you can see his hesitation at times, like he wants to say something, but is unsure of when to jump into the fray. However, he is getting better and more assertive, and he does know his stuff. Plus, it is interesting to hear from a guy who has just retired and his take on the games and players. The two biggest drawbacks they have? First, they are not NFL Primetime. I did love that show, and miss Chris Berman and Tom Jackson. They had the day’s coverage down to a science. This crew is good, and I am sure they will get better. But I still miss Boomer and Jackson. At least they still live on after the Sunday night game. The other issue I have is the constant sponsorship throughout the program. It seems like every feature, key play or player of the day has a sponsor. A few times, I did not know if I was watching a football program or a telethon. Other than that, it is an excellent start to the new football era at NBC.

What happened in Philadelphia? I watched the entire game, and until mid 4th quarter, was feeling great about my pick. Then I watched as Philly cooled and the Giants heated up, making the Eagles pay for relaxing after building a comfortable lead. If the Eagles continue to not close out games, it will be a long season for the Birds.

How about those Browns? Yeah, they got blown out, and were not even in the game, to be truthful. But they played tough all the way to the end. They banged up the Bengals, leaving them with a long injury list for next week and a perfect excuse when they lose. Plus, they popped Chad Johnson so hard, he lay on the turf afterward muttering, where’s 85 at? I could watch that clip over and over again. The Browns may not have the ammunition to make much of a run, but at least they are learning to hit people, and that is always a great start.

Boy did Carolina screw me hard! They were on their way to righting their season and proving me right, and then they pull a boneheaded move with that lateral on the punt return that failed miserably, turned the ball over to Minnesota in position to tie the game, and then ultimately win it. John Fox, I know you are a better coach than that. Now, do not get me wrong, I love a good trick play. Heck, I have watched enough of the Bill Cowher Steelers to know the fun and joy of a well executed trick play. I did not want anyone to think I was hating on trick plays themselves. But, there is a time and a place, and that was neither. Woof.

And speaking of woof, how about that dog of a game that Pittsburgh played on Monday night? Big Ben, and the entire offense, looked out of sync and tentative all night long. The defense played fairly well, although was definitely tiring from being on the field so much as the game wore on. Plus, Troy looked like a shell of himself. I think his injured shoulder is affecting him more than anyone knows.

But on the other side of the ball, Jacksonville played a hell of a game. Stifling defense that held Pittsburgh, a run first, ball control team, to 26 yards rushing. That is incredible. Plus, I gained a lot of respect for Jack Del Rio. After that second interception was returned to the Pittsburgh 1 yard line, he could have easily punched it in and had the final score be 16-0. But he showed some definite class by kneeling on the ball and running out the clock. This is a smart coach, who knows it is very well possible that they could face Pittsburgh in the playoffs, so why embarrass them now, and piss them off for later, by twisting the knife with a meaningless touchdown. I found the move very classy and smart. Jacksonville is in very good hands.

This is the first bye week, so there are only 14 games each week from now until December. The four teams that have the weekend off are Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland and San Diego. Dallas could probably use it, to evaluate their young talent and see what they are going to do about Bledsoe, who seems to be showing his age as the calls for Tony Romo grow greater. Oh, and there is, of course, the current Owens drama. Oh no, TO broke his finger, whatever shall they do? They will be fine. He’ll be out this week of course, and the following week as well. But the week after, when Dallas plays Philadelphia, I guarantee Owens will suddenly be ready to play. Put money on that. Kansas City could definitely use the time off to try to figure out what to do with their quarterback situation and their now suddenly ineffective offense. Of course, I don’t know how one off week will heal Trent Green and suddenly bring cohesion to a patchwork offensive line, but stranger things have happened. San Diego is probably wishing they did not have the week off, and could feast on another NFL also ran instead of cooling their heels. This week off may stop everyone from performing more instant history and anointing them the Super Bowl combatants. They should relax, they play Oakland again. Ahhhh, and Oakland. I really do not know what to say. Maybe its best they go now to Walter, he cannot do any worse than Brooks. The only thing I can say is they probably wish every week was a bye week, at least they cannot lose.

Now, for the weekly update. Not as good this week, but not horrid.

Last Week: 9-7
Season to Date: 19-13

At least I still have a winning record, and an overall winning record to boot. Some of this week’s games seem like no brainers, and others seem almost impossible to pick. Be forewarned, some of these are absolute guesses because neither team has shown me any sort of an edge, either against their opponent this week or in the very young season in general. And considering how well teams have been playing on the road this season, I am not sure if there is such thing as home field advantage anymore. There are a few games where I believe it will make a difference, but for the most part it may be a moot point. But, is it not all just one big guess anyway until the teams actually play? Of course it is, that is the fun of it. Picking a team, and then convincing yourself that they can win, even if it seems like the pick is right out of left field. Now, how about we get to some games and see if that can be improved upon.


Carolina at Tampa Bay

A battle between two beatens. Here are two tough teams that were preseason playoff contenders. But a funny thing happened once the games started to matter, neither have been able to pull it together enough to score a victory. And after this game, one of them will drop to an early season 0-3. Now, this is not insurmountable, but it does start one off with a sour taste in them mouth. I think Carolina is not far off from righting the ship. Besides the ill advised trick play on the punt return, they had control of most of the game in Minnesota, and should have won. Tampa Bay, however, looks to be worse off than anyone thought. Chris Simms cannot seem to find the level of consistency he found last year, the offense has yet to score a touchdown, and the defense seems to have suddenly aged before our eyes. More than 5 of their defensive starters are over the age of thirty. Now, this should not be that big of a deal, but in a defense that is built primarily on speed, it can be dangerous. If Atlanta’s kicking game had been better, they probably would have scored more on Tampa. I look for Carolina to right the ship, and Tampa’s to spring another leak.

Carolina over Tampa Bay


Chicago at Minnesota

The first match up of unbeaten teams we come across in our games. Chicago has jumped out of the gate, and right on top of its first two division rivals, fully intent on staking its claim to the NFC North crown. They have been impressive in their victories thus far, with a stifling defense and Rex Grossman being the quarterback they hoped for and leading a suddenly effective offense. I have already heard some early predictors talking Chicago will go to the Super Bowl. I could see that, if they actually played anyone yet. Minnesota has shown some resilience and ability to play from behind. And they did have an impressive road win in Washington as well as a nice overtime win over Carolina. Perhaps they may be Chicago’s first real test, or maybe they are just smoke and mirrors. Only time will tell, but I think this week Chicago establishes their dominance over their division.

Chicago over Minnesota


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The first of two games between these heated divisional rivals. The next one will not come until the season finale in Cincinnati, so enjoy the match up now, because everything could be decided by then. Cincy is still smarting from their playoff loss to Pittsburgh last year, and would love to enact some revenge on the Steelers for knocking them out of the playoffs, and knocking Carson Palmer out of the game. The problem is they played a tough game against the Browns last week, and are a bit beat up right now. Conversely, Pittsburgh is smarting from that awful Monday night loss, and would like the salve of a nice home victory to make everything right. With Cincy’s injuries and suspensions, and Ben getting right with the offense, I think Pittsburgh takes this one at home and tightens up the division while keeping chase with Baltimore.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati


Green Bay at Detroit

Not really sure where to go with this one. Another division match up, but considering their play to start the season, neither has shown much of anything. Green Bay finally found the end zone last week, but it was to no avail as their defense could not stop New Orleans. Detroit is looking particularly awful on offense, and after playing Seattle tough the first week, does not look that much better on defense. And with the entire flap going on around Detroit, and players not seeming to care enough, I am seeing their preseason hopes for something different begin to unravel. I have to go with Green Bay. At least Favre cares, and maybe a little mojo will hit away from Lambeau Field.

Green Bay over Detroit


Jacksonville at Indianapolis

This may be the toughest game to call all week. Indianapolis played tough against the Giants, but still played it to the wire and could have lost if it were not for some bad clock management near the end of the game. And last week they beat up on Houston, but still managed to give up 24 points to the Texans. I know the Colts have never been known for defense, and their unit is built more for speed than brute force, but that is still a lot of points to give up to an opponent you outclass. Jacksonville has shown they are one of the toughest teams, and defensive units, in the league when they stood up on Monday night and punched Pittsburgh right in the mouth. It was an impressive showing to say the least. They have a few things in their favor. One, Indy does not have that strong of a running game yet. Addai is good, and will get better, but he is not an established game breaker like James was. This plays right into the Jaguar’s hands as they showed how stout their run defense can be. If they shut them down early, and force Peyton to pass, not always a good option for any opposing team, they can render the Colts one dimensional and play against that. Two, their defense is very similar to Pittsburgh’s, in personnel, toughness, hitting and disguising schemes. We all saw what that kind of defense can do against the Colts last year in the playoffs. And three, this is Jacksonville’s divisional rival, and the team they will be gunning for all year. You know they want to make up for losing to them last year, and badly. This is an especially tough call since they are playing in the ultra noisy RCA Dome. But, I have to go with my gut and what I have seen so far, and one team has definitely impressed me more than the other.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis


N.Y. Jets at Buffalo

This looks like it could be a good game. The Jets did not come through for me against New England like I had hoped, but they did make a whale of a game of it near the end. I do see them being better and keeping games close. And Buffalo, well, could we have a return of the Halcyon days in Albany? It is still way too early to tell, but their decision to draft defense seems to be paying off. It looks like the division may not just be New England and three other teams any more. Hard to pick one or the other, but I have to go with Buffalo, if for no other reason than they are playing at home in front of what will surely be a raucous crowd. Not that being at home has helped many teams this year, but I think it may make a difference in this game.

Buffalo over N.Y. Jets


Tennessee at Miami

Looking at this week, there are not too many great match ups, and this is not one of them. Tennessee looked atrocious against San Diego last week, and it seems as though the bleeding will not stop anytime soon. After being the defacto starter once they shipped out Steve McNair, Billy Volek went from starter, to 2nd string, to 3rd string and basically nothing more than a roster spot, to now playing backup in San Diego. I know Billy would never be the next Joe Montana, but he is a decent quarterback who can manage a game or two. I would love to know what he did to fall out of favor so fast. Now they have Vince Young at backup, who is far from ready to take over the reigns, and Kerry Collins, who has shown his best years may be behind him and is taking a ridiculous amount of punishment behind their inept line. It does not look well for the Titans. Miami, meanwhile, is confusing everyone. This team was a preseason playoff pick; some even had them in the Super Bowl. Now they are two weeks in and in an 0-2 hole. Fear not Dolphin faithful, they may not right the ship this week, but they will get a win. And if they do not, well, then things are worse in South Florida than anyone knew.

Miami over Tennessee


Washington at Houston

I am calling this the flip a coin game, because that may be how this is picked.
I am honestly not sure what to make of this game. On paper, the winner seems quite clear. Washington has the more experienced and winning coaching staff, better players, better units and a longer history. Houston, on the other hand, is with a rookie coach and staff, and coming off yet another demoralizing losing season. Looking at the match ups, it should be clear who the winner will be. But it is not. Houston has lost twice now, and while the games were not that close, they have been playing much better. David Carr, with some proper instruction, has shown signs of finally being the quarterback Houston has always hoped he could be. Now, if the offensive line could just protect him for once, he may even blossom. Washington, also, has lost its first two games. And for all their high priced talent in the booth and on the field, looks like a complete mess. Nobody is in sync, Brunell looks like he is about 100 years old, and while I know not having Clinton Portis is tough, no one seems to be stepping up and filling the void. Plus, I am beginning to wonder exactly what Al Saunders is bringing to the table, based on their offensive game plans for the first two games. They seem to at least play the Vikings tough, but it never really seemed like they were in the game last week against Dallas. I know that, because this game is such a trap, no matter who I choose it will be the wrong choice. And I have gone back and forth and have convinced myself either one can win or lose, and like neither choice. But since I have to pick one here goes nothing. Based on absolutely nothing, and as the saying goes, when in doubt, go with the home team.

Houston over Washington


Baltimore at Cleveland

Here we have another divisional match up and another tough game that could throw everyone off. Cleveland showed last week that while they may not be ready to contend for anything yet, they will not be doormats and lay down. Even down by 24 points, they were still willing to go out and pop Cincinnati right in the mouth. I love that. That is playing football. They could very well string a few victories together and be a big time spoiler later in the season as this team grows. Baltimore has yet to impress me. They had the biggest cupcake in a decade last week on their schedule and while they beat them, and soundly, it was not as impressive as it should have been. Maybe it’s my anti-Ravens bias, I am not sure, but I expected a lot more. I do think there is an outside chance Cleveland could stand up this weekend and expose Baltimore, but unless they knock McNair out for a quarter or two, I have trouble seeing how. Baltimore will make their hay this season feasting on the weak, and for the third week in a row, they have another one.

Baltimore over Cleveland


N.Y. Giants at Seattle

As I mentioned before, there are not too many great match ups this weekend, but this is definitely one of them. These two met last year in a nail biter of kicking ineptitude that New York should have won several times over, but never managed to get the final points. This year, things are a little different. Seattle has yet to show their dominant rushing game, and they have played two lower tiered teams. Perhaps losing Steve Hutchinson was worse than anyone thought. And what can I say about the Giants? They have played two tough teams, hanging in till the end against Indy, in a game the could have won if it were not for some bad clock management, and playing tough and coming back to beat Philadelphia last week. I was thoroughly impressed with their performance. Sure, they had a little luck, but you always need luck. And, they never gave up. And I must admit, I am becoming a bit of an Eli fan. I could not stand him when he first hit the league, with all the nonsense of his drafting, and the Peyton comparisons, all of it were just nauseating. But watching him take hit after hit and getting up for more showed some toughness there. He was sacked 8 times in Philadelphia, and never once did he complain, freak out or call out his offensive line. That is a smart field leader. Top that off with being cool under pressure away from home and coming through in the clutch, well you cannot ask for much more. Plus, it is nice to see a Manning call off the count before the play without all the ridiculous histrionics that you usually see. Yes I am talking about Peyton and his annoying habit of changing the play and protection constantly before the snap. Eli does have that habit, but it is not nearly as bad as Peyton, at least not yet. Hopefully he will not get worse with it as he matures. This week, I gotta go with the hot hand.

N.Y. Giants over Seattle


Philadelphia at San Francisco

San Francisco showed me something last week, they will not lie down and die for anyone either. That was an impressive victory at home. They came out ready to play against the Rams. Alex Smith is showing what a year of experience can do for you. Plus, it helps to have a few weapons at your disposal. Although, for 49er fans, here is hoping Bryant does not turn into TO part deux. Not a great showing there a few times with the nonsense on the sidelines. I know he’s young, but you have to learn to control your emotions. Philadelphia, on the other hand, looked dominant through 3 and half quarters. And then they let off the gas, let the Giants back in the game, and could not regain their momentum and blew a home win. Bad, bad, bad form by the Birds. The loss hurt big time, but losing Jevon Kearse for the year hurts worse. Now we will see if Philly really does have depth at their defensive line. I believe they do, but I don’t think they will really have to test it that much this week. I look to Philly to take out their frustrations on 49ers and show they are a good team, and not a bunch of also rans who cannot close.

Philadelphia over San Francisco


St. Louis at Arizona

Division rivals? I know they are in the same division, but considering Arizona’s long history of ineptitude, I really do not know if you can call them rivals. But if the Cardinals are serious about turning things around, and the Rams are serious about getting back to being the greatest show on turf, then this could become a decent rivalry. St. Louis missed a golden opportunity to win last week against the 49ers, and keep themselves atop the division. They have far more weapons than the 49ers, and should have beaten them easily. Conversely, Arizona has shown the ability to score some points and move the ball. However, they really do need to address their offensive line problem. If Warner keeps getting planted on his back, we will be seeing the Matt Leinart era much sooner than expected. This one is not easy, since neither has really shown me anything, but I will go with Arizona. They are home, the new digs seem to help, and St. Louis may be a little road weary. A weak justification, but until either shows me something, it is all I have.

Arizona over St. Louis


Denver at New England

As NBC has happily touted all week, a rematch of the AFC divisional round game, where Denver ended New England’s dynasty. Good gravy. You would think they toppled a government with the gravity of the advertisements. Yes, it is a rematch, but neither team seems to be where they were last year. Denver cannot seem to mount much offense at all. Jake Plummer seems to be largely ineffectual after two games, and I have to wonder if all this Jay Cutler talk has spooked him a bit under center. New England is at 2-0 and leading their division, but they have been mostly unimpressive in victory, barely holding on last week against a late surge from the Jets. I still believe losing all of that veteran talent will catch up with them eventually, but not this week. Denver had a little luck with them last year when they beat the Patriots at home, but they must have left it all there. I just have trouble seeing them do anything in Foxboro with the way they have been playing lately.

New England over Denver


Atlanta at New Orleans

Finally, after a season on the road, the Saints go rolling home. And for the first time in a long time, they go rolling into the Superdome at 2-0. Everyone is feeling good for the Saints right now, returning triumphantly to New Orleans winning and with some great players in tow, the results of some very smart off season acquisitions. There is something new in the air in New Orleans, something they desperately need, and it is called hope. I feel good for them. However, I am afraid it may come crashing down this week. Atlanta has shown that its new spread option offense will not be denied. Allowing Vick to run free and create has shown some great results early on. No one knows if Vick and Dunn can hold up to the punishment of all this running, but at least to start, it is showing some dividends. And they have taken a bold move in upgrading their atrocious kicking, signing 46 year old Morten Anderson and bringing back the second leading all time scorer into the league. Personally, I love that move and think it is fantastic. Good to see Morten in uniform again. I think at least this week they’ll keep it going, unless some Saints linebacker pops either of them good. If they keep out of trouble, they will spoil the Monday night homecoming.

Atlanta over New Orleans